There will be no deal because Boris Johnson doesn’t want one
Posted by Jim on October 2, 2019
‘I don’t care if Northern Ireland falls into the f***ing sea.’( Dominic Cummings, Boris’ key adviser).
Brian Feeney. Irish News. Belfast. Wednesday, October 2, 2019
You read here a few weeks ago that the only way to make sense of the chaos in Westminster is to turn every statement of the British government on its head.
That still applies now, only more so. In the words of Joris Luyendijk, author, foreign correspondent and Guardian banking blogger, the ‘Tory party has elected the most callous, ruthless, mendacious and superficial politician in living memory as leader.’
We’re told, they’re working ‘incredibly hard’ to get a deal before October 31. They’re not. Not only are they not negotiating, they haven’t even made a proposal. Occasionally the truth slips out, as when the provocatively indiscreet Dominic Cummings said a fortnight ago, the so-called negotiations are ‘a sham’. Their first proposals are expected in the next few days. There’s no chance of a deal before Halloween. An extension for serious negotiations is necessary. MPs don’t believe Johnson; that’s why they’ve passed the Benn Act to force Johnson to ask for an extension.
Johnson will leave the EU on October 31 without a deal. If he’s forced into an extension until January he will still leave without a deal, but after a general election. He will leave without a deal because he doesn’t want a deal. You apply the usual test. He says he wants a deal and is working to get one, so that means he doesn’t want a deal and isn’t working to get one. Simple.
Look:even if negotiations were taking place, it’s too late now to complete a deal to present to the European Council on October 17-19. Some innocents think Johnson and his cronies envisage Theresa May’s deal minus the Irish Protocol and some other aspects they don’t like. Their plan is nothing like that. Johnson explained his aims in his infamous letter to Donald Tusk on August 19. There he laid out his ‘final destination’ as he called it.
He will leave the Single Market and Customs Union; no surprise there. However, unlike May who wanted to remain as close as possible to the EU’s arrangements, an inherently contradictory objective, Johnson doesn’t. He wrote, ‘Although we will remain committed to world-class environment, product and labour standards, the laws and regulations to deliver them will potentially diverge from those of the EU.’ Then, in a key sentence he said, “That is the point of our exit and our ability to enable this is central to our future democracy.’ He added, ‘The “Backstop” is inconsistent with this ambition’, which is true. He said staying aligned with EU rules is ‘unacceptable’ to the UK government.
What are the consequences of this position? Very straightforward. There will be no deal. Johnson doesn’t want one at this stage. Instead, he plans to negotiate a free trade deal after leaving. There will be a British/EU customs border in Ireland. There has to be, because the British are going to diverge from EU standards to try to gain trade advantage. All the notions the British have suggested in their ‘confidential, technical non-papers’ have already been rejected months ago by the EU.
In broader terms, it means there will have to be direct rule to enable emergency measures to be brought in here; plans to introduce it are already in train at Westminster. Unless and until DUP leverage on a British government ends, the northern Assembly and Executive are dead. Johnson and his accomplices don’t care about a Border in Ireland or the fate of agriculture and manufacturing here. Indeed, according to the Sun, Dominic Cummings helpfully explained to a Conservative minister, ‘I don’t care if Northern Ireland falls into the f***ing sea.’
Unlike Theresa May, Johnson’s people know that you can’t leave the Single Market and Customs Union and maintain the status quo in Ireland. To maintain it here has to be the “Backstop,” but not if you don’t care about a Border or the Good Friday Agreement which neither the DUP nor Johnson does.
