Thinking about the unthinkable

Posted by Jim on March 17, 2017

By Jude Collins (judecollins.com)

How much of our thinking is wishful? Quite a bit, I suspect. We produce
a model of how we would like things to be and then we gather together
signs and portents that will point to that view.

For example, The Irish Voice, an American-Irish newspaper, had an
editorial yesterday with the heading A United Ireland Now Looks Certain
in the Near Future’. It notes that the various Dublin governments over
the years gave lip-service only to the idea of a united Ireland. “Notice
how Fianna Fail, long the party of platitudes about the North, are
suddenly producing a 12 point plan for Irish unity with no empty
cliches. ”

The editorial notes that for many years voices north and south tended to
be quiet on the subject of a United Ireland:

“For decades there was reason not to speak of a united Ireland in case
such talk spooked the unionists, or so the narrative ran. But that was
then and this is now.”

The editorial writer notes that unionists are under unparalleled
pressure: on the one hand the rising tide of nationalism in the north,
on the other the hardships that will impact everyone in Ireland if
Brexit produces a hard border.

“So, on St. Patrick’s Day in 2017, we stand on the threshold of a new
era in Northern Ireland. We have seen from this latest election that a
unified Ireland has moved from speculation to a demographic
reality…Given the new context and the different political reality in the
Irish Republic, we can say for the first time ever that a united Ireland
is now more likely than not. The figures are there to prove it.”

In today’s Irish News, Alex Kane has a piece entitled ‘Brexit, border
poll and independence referendum mean constitutional tidal wave on its
way.’ His opening paragraph is arresting:

“The next five years or so could be the most exciting – albeit
unpredictable – ones since 1945. Maps will be redrawn. New nations could
emerge. The United Kingdom could disintegrate.”

He says the UK is in chaos, with prime Minister Theresa May devoid of
any kind of plan to cope with Brexit. “So I’m still expecting a second
referendum further down the line, if only to get her off a hook she
never expected to be on.”

Kane believes both Nicola Sturgeon and Sinn Fein are “mischief-making”
in calling for a border referendum both know they won’t get, but it
helps drum up support for their cause. Unlike The Irish Voice, Alex
ducks back from saying what this Celtic restlessness and the impact of
Brexit will have. “Predictions are almost impossible to make because
nobody can know which of the forces will predominate and carry the day.”
But, he concludes, major change is on its way.

In yesterday’s Irish Times, Leo Varadkar, one of those Fine Gael TDs
with his eye on Enda Kenny’s job, declares “Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein
trying to push unification on North”. Leo makes it clear he’s always
been in favour of a united Ireland (who’d a thunk it?): “”In terms of
emotion and feeling, I have always believed that there would be a united
Ireland in my lifetime, and I want to see it.”

But while his heart pines for it, Leo is very worried that there is a
sizeable chunk of the population in the north who don’t want a united
Ireland. “I don’t want to say majority support from both sides – that
may never be possible – but to have reasonable cross-community support.”
Anything else is going to frighten the unionist horses.

The most obvious point coming from Leo’s comments is that he doesn’t
believe in the Good Friday Agreement, which states that a border
referendum should be held when the British Secretary of State believes
there is sufficient support for a constitutional change. (How
nationalists and republicans let as vague a clause as that in, I don’t
know – ach sin sceal eile). If we follow Leo’s advice, we would concede
that there should be constitutional change only when unionists wanted
it, whether they were a majority or a minority. So much for democracy,
then. The threat of unionist violence rules, as it did over a century
ago.

Alex Kane’s thinking is rather more nuanced. He’s right that Nicola
Sturgeon and Sinn Fein are calling for a border referendum for tactical
reasons, but to call that “mischief-making” suggests that the SNP and SF
are naughty school-children. Worse, it seems to suggest that the SNP and
SF shouldn’t do what they can to achieve their political goals. It’s
what politicians do, Alex, and what we pay them to do. As is often the
case with Alex’s columns, they suggest more than they deliver. He tells
us that great constitutional change is on the cards, but backs out of
predicting what that might be. (Mind you, it’s also sensible of him,
because most political predictions are miles off the mark. Do I have to
cite Brexit, Trump, our recent Assembly election – you can make up the
rest.)

Finally, The Irish Voice. When I read editorials like that, it reminds
me how powerful the voices in the media can be.”For decades there was
reason not to speak of a united Ireland in case such talk spooked the
unionists, or so the narrative ran. But that was then and this is now.”
Now there’s a bold statement and one that resonates with a lot more
nationalists and republicans than northern unionists would care to
believe.