The next devolved elections could reshape the entire UK
Posted by Jim on December 6, 2025
David McCann
Following May 7 2026, the governments of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland could all have nationalist first ministers
David McCann
David McCann is an Irish News columnist and commentator on politics and elections.
By David McCann
December 05, 2025 at 6:00am GMT
In 2026, much of the political focus will be on elections in Scotland and Wales, where there could be a surge in support for Reform in both jurisdictions, and, in Wales, a change in government for the first time since devolution was established in 1999.
The hammering that Labour are expected to take is set to raise questions again about whether Keir Starmer can survive as prime minister and whether this Labour government will be the first one-term wonder since 1974.
However, whilst the future of Starmer will dominate the headlines, another symbolic, but important, change that could result from the devolved elections is the question of who will lead the Scottish and Welsh governments.
Following May 7 2026, the governments of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland could all have nationalist first ministers.
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Emma Little-Pengelly, as Deputy First Minister here, would be the last unionist standing.
Looking at the polls, it is clear that Reform is on track for significant gains in Wales and Scotland. They have a real opportunity to become the main centre-right force in Cardiff Bay and Holyrood. They might even be the official opposition in Wales if their polling surge continues.
Nonetheless, the Welsh Labour government is not just under threat from the rise of Reform; another party is on the move in Wales, Plaid Cymru.
Hitting highs of 30% in some polls, Plaid has a real shot at replacing Labour as the largest party in the Senedd and having the numbers to cobble together a new government.
For the first time, Wales could be led by a party that wants independence.
In Scotland, Labour’s political dynamics are not much better.
Before the general election, under Anas Sawar and Keir Starmer, the party looked like it was making a return to its former strength. Labour decimated the SNP in July 2024 and looked set to take power in Holyrood in May 2026.
Now that the UK Labour government has faltered, the SNP are back leading in every poll since August 2024.
The question most often asked is not whether John Swinney will be returned as First Minister, but who he will form a government with.
The fact that we are discussing yet another SNP win, 19 years after they first formed government, is a testament to how much Labour have dropped the ball.
The picture of three first ministers who hold the view that the United Kingdom should not exist would provide a symbolic boost for the nationalist forces.
Moreover, suppose the rise of Reform is now seen in actual votes rather than just polling numbers. In that case, it will also add fuel to the argument that a Nigel Farage premiership is coming in 2029 and the desire for constitutional change could grow in the years ahead.
The upcoming devolved elections have the potential not just to reshape the UK government, but the entire UK itself.
Having all three devolved legislatures with pro-independence parties as the leading forces will become one of the symbols of how disaffected sections of the public feel toward the current UK government.
It will also add fuel to those who are seeking referenda in the future on constitutional change. The anti-establishment feeling is not just being expressed in support for Reform.
Do three nationalist first ministers make the demise of the UK a certainty? No. Only a fool would argue that this is inevitable. The UK has withstood many challenges and evolved to meet the moment.
However, as with southern Ireland’s departure in 1922, we could be reaching a moment when irreconcilable political differences come to the fore, and the demand for a referendum to resolve them becomes unavoidable.
The next set of devolved elections in May 2026 will, without a doubt, be an important test for the UK political system.
If a Reform electoral tsunami is on the horizon, it will begin to surface in these elections.
If, alongside this, there is also either a holding in support or an increase for pro-independence parties, it will pose a major political conundrum for the rest of the Labour government’s term, whoever leads it as prime minister.
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