If Sinn Fein did take power in Republic, what impact would it have on Northern Ireland?
Posted by Jim on November 11, 2022
Popular: Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald at the party’s ard fheis earlier this month
November 11 2022 06:30 AM
A series of polls suggest Sinn Fein is currently the most popular party in the Republic.
But for the moment, its role is confined to the opposition benches in the Dail.
The question remains, however, what would a Sinn Fein taoiseach mean, and what would the consequences be, if anything, for Northern Ireland?
There is no love lost between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail — who are coalition partners in government in Dublin, along with the Green Party — and Sinn Fein.
Leo Varadkar, soon to be reappointed taoiseach, has said the Republic cannot have someone leading the country who refuses to condemn terrorism, following Mary Lou McDonald’s comments that there is “no comparison” between IRA violence and gangland violence.
He claimed it would take a decade to clean up the “mess” Sinn Fein would make of the economy if the party was in government.
Current taoiseach Micheal Martin has also recently said it is time to “take the gun out of Irish politics”, but Sinn Fein “is not doing that, it tries to have a bet each way”.
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“Sinn Fein policies in the last year or two, in my view, have not made economic or fiscal sense in terms of the amount of public spending that would be involved.
“They are essentially a party that, at their core, have been anti-EU and anti-enterprise,” he added.
But is this fearmongering or political point-scoring, or a realistic assessment of Ms McDonald’s party and what it would do if it took power?
One former senior DUP figure, who did not want to be named, said a potential Sinn Fein taoiseach would “not make much difference” for Northern Ireland.
“It would be a long road before [a Sinn Fein taoiseach] could actually happen, as, while they may become the largest party, they would still need another party to go into government with,” they said.
“The electorate in the Republic seem to prefer a Fianna Fail/Fine Gael coalition, and Leo Varadkar has already made it clear his party would not go into government with Sinn Fein. Even, let’s say, if Sinn Fein did fill the taoiseach position, I don’t think it would make much difference for us in Northern Ireland.
“It would probably heighten calls for a border poll, but it wouldn’t make such a poll any more likely to succeed.
“People down south don’t vote for Sinn Fein on the constitutional question, they vote for them regarding issues like housing and jobs.
“Recent polls have shown the electorate in the Republic are in favour of a united Ireland, but not if it means paying higher tax to pay for it.
“The vote for Sinn Fein to get one over on the ‘Dublin elite’, who they feel have not treated them fairly, those who feel wealth has not been shared evenly throughout society.
“If Sinn Fein were the lead party in the Republic, I think it would be very short-lived as people would see how economically illiterate the party really is. There’s also the issue of having a possible Sinn Fein taoiseach who can’t even publicly denounce terrorism.”
While Sinn Fein has come out as the most popular party in the Republic in polls, its support has recently dropped slightly.
A survey conducted by the Sunday Independent and Ireland Thinks put the party on top at 34%, but this is a drop of three points from the previous poll in March.
Political commentator David McCann said if Sinn Fein led the government in the Republic, there would be an “initial novelty” of having a Sinn Fein taoiseach for the first time, but “that would soon wear off”.
“If they did lead the government, at the end of the day I don’t think it would be a radical government, as they would have to go into coalition with another party and that would lead to more a run-of-the-mill regime, with Sinn Fein’s potentially more drastic plans tempered,” he said.
“People vote for Sinn Fein on the bread-and-butter issues like housing and healthcare, so they would try to make in-roads in those areas.
“In terms of what it would mean for Northern Ireland, I’m not saying Sinn Fein would ignore the border poll issue, but it’s up to the Northern Ireland secretary to call a border poll.
“They could set up a citizen’s assembly on the constitutional question, as they have been calling for, and do exploratory work on what an all-island civil service and those kind of things would look like, but that’s about it.”