We’re heading for an autumn general election, the postponement of NI abortion reform and temporary direct rule

Posted by Jim on July 17, 2019

by Brian Walker

No to time limits or unilateral escape hatches or all these elaborate devices, glosses, codicils and so on that you could apply to the backstop,” he told a debate hosted by The Sun on Monday.

Mr Hunt agreed, adding: “The backstop, as it is, is dead … I don’t think tweaking it with a time limit will do the trick, we’ve got to find a new way.”

Now that the “backstop is dead” the Johnson camp are pinning their  hopes on a

new divorce deal ( that)  may allow a future PM to delay paying the full £39billion until a free trade agreement with the EU is thrashed out. That would be a huge boost for Boris – who has said the UK should withhold part until the EU completes a trade deal, according to The Sun.

Our key local analyst Katy Hayward reminds us of the potential costs this side of the water that both candidates are ignoring.

It is estimated 55,000 jobs will be at risk in Ireland if the UK crashes out of the EU. In Northern Ireland, the cost of no deal could be over 40,000 jobs (equivalent to more than 1 in 20)

No doubt this will be dismissed as “project fear”.

But let’s stick to the politics of it for now.

Assume for a moment a majority of MPs are unable to prevent it Leave on 31 October. This creates a host of new political problems. The former Conservative leader William Hague argues  that a Johnson government on a No Deal ticket would be unable to get the necessary legislation through this parliament. A reliable majority just isn’t there.  A general election would be necessary.

The entirely plausible case is made that Labour are so divided over Leave v Remain, the basic Corbyn split and now over anti-semitism  that the Tories would emerge as at least as the largest single party. Labour may have missed the boat. The momentum deplore it you like , is with the rather less divided Conservatives.

An election called by the new prime minister in September would cut through several problems in their present form. Prorogation of parliament for the election of new parliament would not attract the same constitutional ignominy as temporary suspension to allow Leave to happen without challenge.  He wouldn’t have to face the threat of an immediate defeat in a vote of confidence supported by anti-No Deal Tories headed by the outgoing chancellor Philip Hammond and Dominic Grieve  – or if he did due to an accident of timing in the autumn, he would accept the challenge on the front foot.

None of this would be the answer to all the new PM’s prayers however.

The Conservatives would be seriously split over the manifesto and candidate re-selection.

A postponement of a few weeks of the 31 October deadline would surely be necessary, forcing Johnson to eat his words.

The new parliament would likely be hung with an even more complicated mix than before, with a  selection of Brexit party MPs on the No Deal side and more Lib Dems for Remain  and SNP MPs demanding a second independence referendum as the price of a second Brexit referendum favouring Remain, if that was  the keystone of Labour’s manifesto. Any Brexit  policy could hang by a thread.

The abortion and equal marriage amendments of the NI Executive Formation Bill would fall – (will they pass the Lords in time before the summer recess on 25 July anyway?) – as Parliament cannot bind its successor.

If Stormont had not been restored and the courts did not rule against  it on constitutional grounds, there might be nothing except the DUP to  inhibit  cross party support for a new all UK Abortion Act along the lines of the GB 1967 Act  and repealing the 1861 Act criminalising abortion throughout the  kingdom.

While the constitutional arguments against “driving a coach and horses through devolution” have force, their critics are attacking the wrong target, leading with constitutional grounds rather than their  real objection to ” abortion on demand.”  The objections are likely to be further weakened by the imposition of temporary Direct Rule in the event of No Deal and even possibly even with a deal. Suzanne Breen’s report is correct. Ministers of some sort will be needed to take on extra powers in the event of Brexit; if not Stormont ministers, then UK ministers. This move would require the support of the Irish government. And despite all the surrounding chaos, it would be likely to get it provided it was regularly endorsed  by the British-Irish intergovernmental council.

There are worse scenarios, if only just..