Why the fate of NI could lie in the hands of British voters
Posted by Jim on October 11, 2022
Barry White
Brexit and right-wing policies bring renewed calls for Irish unity
Probably the biggest factor in the slow-burning cause of Irish unity is the current unpopularity of the Tory government, among both unionists and nationalists.
All my life, which has been longer than I ever imagined, I’ve been hearing about the prospects for a united or new Ireland, but suddenly it has become relevant. Maybe it’s because of recent election results, showing how nationalists have almost solidified — in the way that unionists used to do — around one party, in Stormont and Westminster.
Or maybe it’s the 2021 census, confirming what we have long suspected, that there would eventually be more Catholics prepared to declare that was their birthright than Protestants, in a statelet designed for a Protestant majority.
The infamous arithmetical solution, based on Catholic nationalists eventually outnumbering the Protestant unionists at the ballot box, is slowly coming about, even if it is far too simplistic to say all those in both communities will vote accordingly. I recall putting the crude numbers solution to John Hume in the early 1990s and hearing him imply that it was the worst thing he could think of. He was in politics to make sure a united Ireland did not happen that way.
Another possible reason for the rise in nationalist hopes — and unionist fears — is the interest being shown by the parties in the Republic, responding to the campaign led by influential community leaders in Northern Ireland.
In the past, southern politicians have run a mile to avoid any commitment to the national goal, but the success of Sinn Fein in polls and votes has forced them to give serious consideration to the options. This time, learning the lesson of Brexit, they are determined to have a viable plan well ahead of any vote.
Of course, nothing can happen until the Good Friday Agreement commitment, letting the Westminster-appointed secretary of state decide on a border poll, is put into action. And the likelihood of that, under the present embattled government, is minimal, even though the Tories are obviously running out of patience with their customary DUP allies over the Stormont veto.
Underlying all this uncertainty is the divide not only between nationalists and unionists but between pro and anti-Brexiteers, notably over the NI Protocol.
Nationalists appreciate the preservation of the link with Dublin and the European Union in the necessity for checks on trade between NI and GB, while unionists see them as a wedge that threatens their existence as an integral part of the UK. The fact that the DUP backed Brexit heavily and have been consistently let down by successive prime ministers adds to the sense of crisis, as it awaits decisions on a Stormont election and a border poll.
But probably the biggest factor in the slow-burning cause of Irish unity is the current unpopularity of the Tory government, among both unionists and nationalists.
Since the Brexit vote, brought about by false promises, the government has been veering to the hard right, breaking away from its nearest and most profitable trading partner and trying to find a buccaneering, regulation-free role for itself on the world stage.
Boris Johnson was soon proved to be a false friend to the DUP, by signing up to a withdrawal treaty that put a border in the Irish Sea, and there is little confidence that Liz Truss, under pressure, will persist with her protocol-busting bill and initiate a trade war with the EU.
It is certainly arguable that the United Kingdom is a very different country, under increasingly right-wing government policies, than it was even a decade ago. How much support is there here for sending asylum seekers to Rwanda? Or for restricting people’s right to protest or strike?
Therein lies the dilemma for the expanding middle-of-the-road voters here, as they contemplate the next series of elections and a possible border poll. If Britain drifts further from Europe towards deals with the Far East and USA, will Irish unity, incorporating EU membership, become more attractive? Unionism, using its veto on Stormont, has made little attempt to widen its appeal, split three ways.
Keir Starmer’s Labour could change all that, if the opinion polls are to be trusted, but can it really upset a 71-seat Tory majority within two years? He needs a revival in Scotland, still concentrated on its own nationalist referendum, as well as a rejection of the populist values, eagerly promoted by the right-wing media and bought in Red Wall constituencies in 2019.
He, too, is stuck by his acceptance of the Brexit result, despite all the evidence. He says he will make it work, presumably by dampening hopes that the UK can go it alone and restoring relations with the EU. Whether he can also create the growth that the Tories aspire to is another matter, but if he could recoup some of the ground being lost he could be a long term premier.
Essentially, therefore, the fate of Northern Ireland, constitutionally and economically, may be in the hands of the British public. It will decide which direction the UK goes, towards greater isolation and economic decline — making NI more of a millstone — or settling for another Labour-led attempt to resolve age-old problems of identity within a new kind of Irish unity.
What is clear is that if we must have to share the island under totally new circumstances we need to know a whole lot more about each other — what makes us tick, what government would be like, what basic things cost and what painful parts of history have kept us apart.
The politicians here in Ireland and Britain would have the last, or near last, word after lengthy negotiations that would follow a positive unity vote.
Frankly my main interest would be in retaining the free health service, as well as the BBC, but if I could be convinced that instead of two divided entities — Northern Ireland and the UK of Britain and NI — both could find a peaceful, progressive future in a new configuration, I would think it worth supporting. What we have demonstrably isn’t working.