Posted by Jim on May 29, 2026
Making Sense of the By-Elections
A letter from Ireland
a Chara,
Last weekend, the votes were counted in two by-elections (special elections). One in Dublin Central, an urban constituency, and the other in Galway West, comprising Galway City and a vast tract of rural Gaeltacht.
It was a disappointing election, as Sinn Féin finished second in Dublin to the Social Democrats and down the field in Galway, with the seat going to one of the government parties, Fine Gael.
Two different constituencies returning Centre-Left and Centre-Right candidates. I say disappointing, as I believe neither will deliver the kind of new and united Ireland that the people so desperately need and desire. But that is democracy.
I am always mindful of President Clinton’s words: “The American people have spoken—but it’s going to take a little while to determine exactly what they said.”
While it is always interesting to try to guess, it is dangerous to draw conclusions from two vastly different constituencies, where hyper-local candidates and issues can skew results but not have an impact on a national scale. It would be like comparing a district in Massachusetts to one in New Mexico or a riding in Quebec to one in Alberta.
Elections in Ireland use proportional representation. A voter ranks their candidates in order of preference. In these elections, Sinn Féin sought to win seats and also support other left-wing parties. A first preference for Sinn Féin, then encouraging voters to give preferences to other left-wing candidates.
In the Galway election, when the Sinn Féin candidate was eliminated, 75% of his transferable votes went to parties and independent candidates on the left, and 25% to a rural party. The battle for the seat was between a centre-right candidate of Fine Gael and the rural party candidate of Independent Ireland.
In the final round of vote counting, it was the left-leaning parties’ votes that elected the centre-right candidate. This was not a surprise, as the Irish Labour Party had supported Fine Gael in previous Governments.
In Dublin, the election battle was between left-wing parties, with the Sinn Féin candidate taking second place to the Social Democrats after nine rounds of transfers.
This result meant that, for the first time in history, the constituency has no representative from the government parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The votes across both constituencies vary dramatically. Looking at the winning parties, Fine Gael got 20% in Galway and 10.7% in Dublin, while the Social Democrats got 19.7% in Dublin and 7% in Galway. Independent Ireland did not contest the election in Dublin.
However, over time, trends become a little more clear. In 2007, Fianna Fail got 44% of the vote in Dublin and is now at 4%. In Galway, over the same period, their vote has collapsed from 37% to 9%. Sinn Féin’s vote has more than doubled, returning TDs in both constituencies.
Until very recently, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael controlled both government and opposition, and they could rely on smaller left parties to make up the numbers. That is no longer the case. Across the state, polls indicate that Sinn Féin has made up ground and is now the largest party, while support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael has fallen.
The by-election results offer an important snapshot of opinion in two very different constituencies and two very different sets of results. The analysis of what the people have said will take some time to work out.
Have a great weekend.
Is mise,
Ciarán
Ciarán Quinn is the Sinn Féin Representative to North America
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“We have suffered from occupation. We fought against it for 800 years, and it’s in our DNA to recognize injustice when we see it.” – Liam Cunningham